Posted by
Dana Allen on Saturday, November 01, 2008 12:00:00 AM
How McCain Can Win If He Wants To November 1, 2008 (note due to Townhall problems with rich text formating have erased and reposted this)
1. First can he win being 6.6% behind as he is today in the polls?
2. What is the history of Presidential poll accuracy? There is a big error in favor of Democrats in recent polls. In 1996 the polls estimated Clinton would win by 11.75% and the actual was 4.93% or a 6.82% error in favor of the Democrat. 2000 was affected by Bush’s DUI revelation at the last minute thus is less reliable. In 2004 polls said Kerry would win by .03%, but Bush won by 2.4% which is a pro Democrat error of 2.43%. That averages a 4.6% better than the polls for the Republican in recent elections. Add 2% for the Bradley effect and the race is dead even to the tenth of one percent as of November 1, as the RealClearPolitics.com poll average is 6.6% Obama advantage. Without the Bradley effect Obama is ahead by 2%. So it is very close and winnable for McCain.
3. I was a speaker at an Accuracy in Media event in 2000. Another speaker was Stanton Evans of National Review fame who spoke about his upcoming and now released book on Senator Joseph McCarthy. He started his talk with a joke about politics. He said "The first thing to understand about American politics is that there are only two parties. There is the Stupid Party and there is the Evil Party … the Republicans are the Stupid Party." There was a pause and then the room full of conservatives burst out laughing. It was a joke yet was true. The Democrat Party is the party of slavery, the Ku Klux Klan, drug dealers, pornographers, school segregation, lynchings, Communist collusion (gave Eastern Europe and China to the Communists), they commit over 80% of violent crime, and they started the Civil War which killed hundreds of thousands just because the lost an election to the Republicans. The Party of Evil does fit.
What about the Stupid Party? In 1988 Bush beat Dukakis because outside groups ran the Willie Horton ad, which unlike most political ads from both sides was not deceptive in any way. It was of vital importance that the American people needed to know about. Someone foolish enough to release convicted murders serving life sentences without chance of parole weekend passes so they can rape and torture citizens is too foolish to be a good President. What did Bush Sr. have to say about the ads? The same thing that the Democrats did, it should be kept secret from the people. Bush asked them to stop running the ads. Fortunately the groups were too smart to listen to Bush and won the election for him. A political party that takes orders from their opponents is as stupid as an army that gets their battle plans from their enemies and follows them.
Was this a one time event? Not at all. Dole ran his campaign just the way the Democratic Party and the Media (which is roughly the same thing as the Democratic Party) told Dole to run it. He refused to point out Clinton’s immense corruption issues and lost the election. This is why the Democrats and the Media told him to make all topics that would win the election for Dole off limits. In 1996 I flew into San Francisco Airport got into a cab and the cabbie named Joe asked me if I listened to KSFO. I said yes and he said Geoff Metcalf was his favorite talk show host. I said that Geoff was a friend of mine and we did speaking events together. He then said "I think that Dole has done a deal with Clinton to lose the election." I raised my arm to make my points that was not true. After 30 seconds of racking my brain to come up with a single reason to refute Joe, dropped my arm and said "Joe maybe you are on to something."
Fast forward to 2000, I was the chairman of NewsMax.com and the Mahoney family who founded the Conservative Party of New York visited. One of them asked me whether Lazio or Clinton would win the Senate seat. I said "If Lazio tells the truth about Hillary she does not have a chance, and if Lazio does not tell the truth about Hillary he does not have a chance. Lazio never told the truth about the corruption, bribes, etc. of Hilary and he lost.
Fast forward to 2006 I sent an email to John Spencer her opponent relating the 2000 conversation, and said the exact same thing would happen unless he told the truth about Hillary. The same thing did happen again.
So now John McCain is running his campaign the way the Democrats and Media tell him to, such as making Rev. Wright off limits. And it is having the same effect that Dole taking orders from Democrats and the Media in 1996 had. Obama would not have a chance if McCain was not following the script his opponents tell him will work. Obama has the worst associations and the most unaccomplished career of any presidential candidate in history.
4. So what is the solution? The good news is there are several. The best long term solution is not in Republican Party, it is in the Media. You may have heard of the attempt by conservatives to do a shareholder buyout of CBS about 15 years ago. I started that movement and got Don and Reed Irvine of Accuracy in Media to back it. After seeing the worst propaganda reporting in my lifetime this election I think the time to do the takeover has come. A network that is truly a public watchdog that goes after corruption with a vengeance is the long term solution. The public is far more aware of the media problem today than in the 80s and 90s, the time for this movement to work has come. It is too late for 2008 to do a takeover but can we do something in 2008 to win this election?
5. Plenty. Mostly doing the opposite of what the Media tells McCain to do would work.
6. There is an organization out there, GOP Trust, that is running Rev. Wright ads with the "God da—America" speech. This is similar to the Willie Horton ad, outside groups using the truth to win an election. That is an idea that seems to be against the DNA of campaign consultants who seem addicted to deceptive ads on unimportant issues.
7. Listening to the third debate I took notes on what McCain said and what he should have said if he wanted to win. I do not want to trash McCain; he does have some good points. He is the best military strategist in the Senate and he did select Palin. Palin immediately struck me as the next Reagan which the Media also detected. Thus they immediately slandered her to prevent the American people from getting to know the real Palin so as to protect the Democratic Party. Also McCain was fantastic at the Al Smith Dinner, if he acted that way in the debates he would be ahead 5%. In addition his POW experience with Communists must have given him a lot of wisdom.
Debate Points:
8. McCain: Zero response to attacks. Correct Response: Immediately point out the truth.
Example: Obama over and over has said in debates that John McCain has voted to give tax breaks to corporations to export jobs overseas. McCain said nothing in response. Voter Conclusion: True, McCain wants to destroy American jobs. Truth: It is hard to believe there was a Destroy American Jobs Act but since McCain goes mute it gives the impression there was one. Why no response? Is McCain trying to lose the election, and just putting on a show of trying?
Example: Obama has used the Moral Equivalence trick of the Soviets. Obama is up to his eyeballs in Fannie Mae being the #1 bribe receiver (campaign contributions) from Fannie Mae which is the key company that caused the mortgage meltdown and cost us over $700,000,000,000 in the bailout. When McCain campaign points this out they say Obama is #2, but the money is for the last 10 years, and Obama has been there only 3 years so he has received about 200 % more than anyone else from Fannie Mae per year. Why does no one from the McCain campaign point that out with a chart? Is it Stupid Party methodology? And Obama is friends with the former Fannie Mae CEO Raines who was fired and walked away with $90,000,000. This is election winning stuff. So Obama says that a couple of McCain staffers did lobbying for Fannie Mae years ago, a tiny deal. Yet because McCain does not point how meaningless and deceptive that is and gives the impression that there is moral equivalence even though there is none. McCain did try to stop the Fannie Mae train wreck 3 years ago.
9. Issue of the rich: The slogan of the Democrats for decades has been they are the party of the poor and working class and Republicans are the party of the rich top 5%, the capitalists. A myth. The truth is that the Democrats are the party of the rich and the poor especially welfare recipients, and Republicans are the party of middle income and so called "working class". Look at a Red State/Blue State map, the richest states are Democrat (like CA and NY), and the richest neighborhoods are Democrat (like Beverly Hills, San Francisco and Manhattan). So McCain panders to the top 5% which are largely Democrats (like Warren Buffet and Soros) who will vote for Obama and ignores the Republican base which is Middle/Working telling them that maybe someday (like Joe the Plummer) they might make enough for McCain to be good for them, but chances are Obama is better for them now. Not a good way to win an election. He should point out that many of the rich tend to be Democrats like the queen of mean Lenora Helmsley who said taxes are for the little people and made big contributions to Carter and Mondale. But that for honest and hard working Americans his plans are better. That Clinton promised middle class tax breaks in the election, then immediately raised middle class taxes after getting into office. That when a Democrat says middle class tax breaks they mean middle class tax increases. And that Republicans are not against the rich at all, even though so many of them are Democrats. That would undercut Democrat’s key slogan.
10. McCain talks about small business owners a lot. Yet the majority of the people who will vote for McCain will be employees, whom he ignores except to say because I am going to help small business and that will create more jobs for you. What he should do is say the reason most workers left the Democratic Party and now vote Republican is because our policies are better for workers, giving the details.
11. Over emphasis on taxes. There is more to America than taxes, but Republican politicians currently in control of the party seem to robotically think it is the only issue we have. This hurts Republicans. We are the party of liberty and justice for all. The party that is not antagonistic to Christians. The party that is much better on fighting crime effectively. The patriotic party. The party that does not want to run your life via government.
12. Dealing with Bush. McCain finally came up with a good line in the third debate that Obama should have run in 2004 if he wants to run against Bush. Beyond that McCain should say that Bush on domestic spending is a liberal Democrat, a spendaholic. That he and the Republican Party are going to return to their roots of being fiscal conservatives. That if people like the wild social spending of George Bush that helped get us into the financial crisis they should vote for Obama because Obama will even outspend Bush.
13. Its too late now but on bailout McCain should have said "I will not vote for a bailout that is crafted by the people that created the problem. Barney Frank, Obama, Bush, Paulson and Dodd can not be architects of the plan, only people like Ron Paul, the economists that predicted the problem, and the 10 Senators including myself that wrote letter in 2005 warning about Fannie Mae should be allowed to craft the solution. As they obviously understand the problem better than the those who came up with the first plan." McCain would be a hero and be ahead today if he did it. And it is true and wise to do it just that way.
14. McCain mentioned that tax payers groups rate him high. But should say specifically "The Taxpayers Union rates me at 97% and rates Obama at 2%, that is how much better I will be for taxpayers and that is how dangerous Obama is to the health of our economy." I have no idea what the ratings are as McCain does not say, a missed opportunity.
15. Security Clearance: A killer issue, McCain should point out with experts to back him up that Obama would be washed out from getting a Security Clearance because of his multiple ties to Communist Party USA members like Frank Davis and terrorists like Ayers and Dhorn. He should tell people to "Go to our website to hear first hand a 1973 video of undercover police officer Larry Grathwohl who infiltrated the Weather Underground testify about how Bill Ayers in a meeting planned to give the USA to the Soviets, Mao, and Castro and then commit genocide against 25 million Americans who Ayers estimated would not accept Communism and would have to be put into concentration camps. Obama’s friend Ayers planned to murder 3 times more people than Adolf Hitler, and actually bombed the Capitol and the Pentagon, the same two of three targets as his fellow anti American terrorist Osama Bin Laden picked. Obama says these are minor matters not to be concerned with. How can Obama be an the chief law enforcement officer of America when he pals around with an unrepentant terrorist who planed to murder 3 times more American than Hitler murdered in his concentration camps! That is exactly the same as if Obama palled around and worked with an unrepentant Ku Klux Klanner who bombed 3 black churches when Obama was 9 years old and planed to murder 25 million African Americans in concentration camps and now says his only regret is not bombing more black churches. Unless you think some Americans should have more rights than others, that some peoples lives are more important than others Obama thinks that being friends and an associate today of a unrepentant Ku Klux Klan terrorist who has planned to murder 25 million Americans is just fine. The reason he would not be able to get a Security Clearance is that he should not, he is a huge risk to the rights and security of Americans."
16. Income Redistribution, Spreading the Wealth Issue: McCain has made a big deal out of this. The two terms sound good, if the same amount of wealth was spread around indeed 75% or so of people would be better off. McCain does not explain the problems of Income Redistribution, just uses the name. His favorite phrase is "Joe the Plummer", as if McCain had no idea why people should vote for him, until a chance encounter between Obama and Joe came along. For 10-15% of the USA population just using the term will work as they know the history and dangers of Spreading the Wealth advocates. For 85% it will not work.
McCain can score with this issue this way: "My opponent has proposed the Spreading the Wealth concept without giving its history. It may sound good but it has created disaster, poverty and injustice when the proponents of it get into office. Who has proposed this? Lenin, Stalin, Saddam Hussein, Kim ll Song, Castro, Mao and Pol Pot all of whom described their governments as Socialist. All of them became mass murderers upon fooling people into giving them power. All of them have created mass poverty and hugely unequal income distribution. In the most left wing country on earth North Korea has been converted into a monarchy where 95% of the people live in dire poverty to starvation while the monarch Kim Jong il is the largest personal consumer of cognac in the world, has a harem of sex slaves and has a rail car with built in lobster tanks and the most expensive champagnes and caviars. That is indeed income redistribution, all the wealth belongs to a tiny group of Socialists at the top while the people eat tree roots trying to stay alive. The history of Income Redistribution is that the economy is ruined and the government takes all the wealth for themselves. That is not the American Way; it is the opposite of the American Way.
Do those who propose the Income Redistribution Scam in America really care about other people, or are they like Kim Jong il and Castro who care more about themselves? We can find out by looking at the chief proponents of it in America, Obama and Biden. Obama made over $4,000,000 last year. He has a brother George Obama who lives in a hut in Kenya on $1 a month. That is right $12 a year! Recently Obama’s wife had a $400 lobster and champagne snack at the Waldorf Astoria. How much has he given to help his own brother? Zero. He also has an aunt living in taxpayer funded public housing in Boston who he also does not help in anyway. There are two explanations of Obama’s behavior either he is a phony who only pretends to care about the poor or he thinks the government has to put the people into welfare because everyone is as stringy and uncaring about others as he is. Obama is wrong; the rest of America is so much more caring and generous than Obama is. What about Biden? In the last 10 years he has averaged making over $250,000 a year yet has never once even given even $1,000 in a year to charity. Clearly both Obama and Biden do not care about the less fortunate, even if they are family members. Their actions speak more accurately than their words."
17. What is the key issue that is getting more votes for McCain in 2008? It is abortion. The majority of people I know who are voting for McCain have mentioned that as the deciding factor. McCain should push hard on Obama’s support for Partial Birth Abortion and Abortion Survivor Infanticide. Obama is at the extreme on those issues even in the Democratic Party.
18. Patriotism is a good issue. McCain is good on this, yet never responds to the Democrat claim that all Americans are of equal patriotism. That absurd claim is designed to protect Democrats from a great weakness they have. There is just as much variance in patriotism as honesty. From the beginning of America their have been big differences. Benedict Arnold was just as good a general as Washington, but he was not as patriotic as Washington. Were those that stole the atomic bomb secrets and gave them to the Soviets as patriotic as those in the FBI agents that caught them? Is a border guard who takes bribes from drug cartels as patriotic as those who will not? Of course not! McCain should ask Obama this: "So you are saying you are no more patriotic than your friend Bill Ayers who bombed the Capitol and the Pentagon?" What can Obama say; he would be frying himself either way.
Conclusion:
If McCain did even half of these actions he would win the election. The key thing is to realize is the chief motivation of Republican voters (not the party elite) is their belief in liberty and justice for all instead of wanting the government to be their nanny.
God bless America, Dana Allen